Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
